Since 2020, most purchasing organisations have learned that "we have never let you down" is not a supply guarantee. It is a track record, and track records break. What separates a resilient supply position from a lucky one is whether the resilience is written into something.
In this piece
Why goodwill stopped being enough
The last few years supplied a useful set of stress tests: a container market that went from cheap to unobtainable and back, a canal blockage, energy prices that made European calcination temporarily uneconomic, sanctions that re-routed whole origins, and freight diversions that added weeks to Asian lead times.
None of those were forecastable individually. What they had in common is that they all landed on whoever had the thinnest buffer. In every case, the plants that coped were not the ones with the best relationships — they were the ones whose arrangements had slack designed into them.
Read your force majeure clause
Most buyers discover the wording of their force majeure clause during the event it covers. That is the wrong time. Three things are worth checking before you need them:
- What counts. Does the clause cover a producer's own plant failure, or only external events? Does it cover its upstream suppliers' failures? Energy price rather than energy availability?
- What happens to allocation. If the producer cannot supply everyone, does your contract say anything about how volume is divided? Silence means you are allocated at their discretion, and discretion favours large accounts.
- What happens to price. A clause that permits suspension without permitting renegotiation is very different from one with a price-adjustment mechanism attached.
Where the risk actually sits in Incoterms
Incoterms allocate cost and risk, and buyers routinely accept terms that put both in the wrong place. Buying EXW or FCA on an imported grade means the transport risk, the customs formalities and — critically — the position of importer of record are yours. That last one has consequences well beyond freight: it determines your REACH role and, since January 2026, your position under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.
DDP moves the freight, the transport risk and the customs formalities to the seller — but a non-EU seller can only carry the importer's REACH and CBAM obligations through an EU-established representative, so confirm who that will be before you assume the position has moved. It costs more per tonne, and for imported material it frequently costs less in total once you price the administration and the exposure.
Four structures that make availability real
1. A written safety-stock policy, with a number in it
"We hold stock" is marketing. "We hold four weeks of your rolling twelve-week average, reviewed quarterly, and we tell you when it drops below three" is a commitment you can audit. Ask for the second.
2. A qualified alternate, not a named one
A second source that has never run in your process is a hope. Qualification means a production trial, documented equivalence, and any formulation adjustment agreed in advance.
3. Consignment or vendor-managed inventory
Material sitting on your site, owned by the supplier until you draw it. You get availability without the working capital; they get visibility and a stickier position. It only works with genuine consumption data flowing back.
4. Volume commitment in exchange for priority
Allocation risk is real, and the way to reduce it is to be a committed customer rather than a spot one. A take-or-pay or minimum-volume arrangement is unattractive until the quarter when material is short and you are at the front of the queue.
What to ask a supplier
Five questions that separate a structured supply position from a confident one:
- Where is this material produced, and is there a second plant that can make it?
- How much of it is in the region right now, and who owns it?
- What is your allocation rule if you are short?
- Who is the importer of record on this shipment, and what does that make me responsible for?
- If I need an alternate grade qualified, what does that process look like and how long does it take?
A supplier who answers those crisply is managing your risk. A supplier who answers them with reassurance is asking you to carry it.
